Mean field variational Bayes (MFVB) is a popular posterior approximation method due to its fast runtime on large-scale data sets. However, a well known major failing of MFVB is that it underestimates the uncertainty of model variables (sometimes severely) and provides no information about model variable covariance. We generalize linear response methods from statistical physics to deliver accurate uncertainty estimates for model variables--both for individual variables and coherently across variables. We call our method linear response variational Bayes (LRVB). When the MFVB posterior approximation is in the exponential family, LRVB has a simple, analytic form, even for non-conjugate models. Indeed, we make no assumptions about the form of the true posterior. We demonstrate the accuracy and scalability of our method on a range of models for both simulated and real data.

Abstract-- We present closed-form expressions for marginalizing and conditioning Gaussians onto linear manifolds, and demonstrate how to apply these expressions to smooth nonlinear manifolds through linearization. Although marginalization and conditioning onto axis-aligned manifolds are well-established procedures, doing so onto non-axis-aligned manifolds is not as well understood. We demonstrate the utility of our expressions through three applications: 1) approximation of the projected normal distribution, where the quality of our linearized approximation increases as problem nonlinearity decreases; 2) covariance extraction in Koopman SLAM, where our covariances are shown to be consistent on a real-world dataset; and 3) covariance extraction in constrained GTSAM, where our covariances are shown to be consistent in simulation. Figure 1: Marginalizing and conditioning Gaussians onto manifolds defined by linear constraints using Table II. Gaussians have rank-2 covariances, lying on the constraint plane.

We consider the problem of collaborative bearing estimation using a method with historic roots in set theoretic estimation techniques. We refer to this method as the Convex Combination Ellipsoid (CCE) method and show that it provides a less conservative covariance estimate than the well known Covariance Intersection (CI) method. The CCE method does not introduce additional uncertainty that was not already present in the prior estimates. Using our proposed approach for collaborative bearing estimation, the nonlinearity of the bearing measurement is captured as an uncertainty ellipsoid thereby avoiding the need for linearization or approximation via sampling procedures. Simulations are undertaken to evaluate the relative performance of the collaborative bearing estimation solution using the proposed (CCE) and typical (CI) methods.

Mean field variational Bayes (MFVB) is a popular posterior approximation method due to its fast runtime on large-scale data sets. However, a well known major failing of MFVB is that it underestimates the uncertainty of model variables (sometimes severely) and provides no information about model variable covariance. We generalize linear response methods from statistical physics to deliver accurate uncertainty estimates for model variables--both for individual variables and coherently across variables. We call our method linear response variational Bayes (LRVB). When the MFVB posterior approximation is in the exponential family, LRVB has a simple, analytic form, even for non-conjugate models. Indeed, we make no assumptions about the form of the true posterior. We demonstrate the accuracy and scalability of our method on a range of models for both simulated and real data.

The widely-used Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) provides a straightforward recipe to estimate the mean and covariance of the state given all past measurements in a causal and recursive fashion. For a wide variety of applications, the EKF is known to produce accurate estimates of the mean and typically inaccurate estimates of the covariance. For applications in visual inertial localization, we show that inaccuracies in the covariance estimates are \emph{systematic}, i.e. it is possible to learn a nonlinear map from the empirical ground truth to the estimated one. This is demonstrated on both a standard EKF in simulation and a Visual Inertial Odometry system on real-world data.

In this paper, we study endogeneity problems in algorithmic decision-making where data and actions are interdependent. When there are endogenous covariates in a contextual multi-armed bandit model, a novel bias (self-fulfilling bias) arises because the endogeneity of the covariates spills over to the actions. We propose a class of algorithms to correct for the bias by incorporating instrumental variables into leading online learning algorithms. These algorithms also attain regret levels that match the best known lower bound for the cases without endogeneity. To establish the theoretical properties, we develop a general technique that untangles the interdependence between data and actions.

Covariance estimation for matrix-valued data has received an increasing interest in applications including neuroscience and environmental studies. Unlike previous works that rely heavily on matrix normal distribution assumption and the requirement of fixed matrix size, we propose a class of distribution-free regularized covariance estimation methods for high-dimensional matrix data under a separability condition and a bandable covariance structure. Under these conditions, the original covariance matrix is decomposed into a Kronecker product of two bandable small covariance matrices representing the variability over row and column directions. We formulate a unified framework for estimating the banded and tapering covariance, and introduce an efficient algorithm based on rank one unconstrained Kronecker product approximation. The convergence rates of the proposed estimators are studied and compared to the ones for the usual vector-valued data. We further introduce a class of robust covariance estimators and provide theoretical guarantees to deal with the potential heavy-tailed data. We demonstrate the superior finite-sample performance of our methods using simulations and real applications from an electroencephalography study and a gridded temperature anomalies dataset.

The paper is concerned with non-linear Gaussian filtering and smoothing in continuous-discrete state-space models, where the dynamic model is formulated as an It\^{o} stochastic differential equation (SDE), and the measurements are obtained at discrete time instants. We propose novel Taylor moment expansion (TME) Gaussian filter and smoother which approximate the moments of the SDE with a temporal Taylor expansion. Differently from classical linearisation or It\^{o}--Taylor approaches, the Taylor expansion is formed for the moment functions directly and in time variable, not by using a Taylor expansion on the non-linear functions in the model. We analyse the theoretical properties, including the positive definiteness of the covariance estimate and stability of the TME Gaussian filter and smoother. By numerical experiments, we demonstrate that the proposed TME Gaussian filter and smoother significantly outperform the state-of-the-art methods in terms of estimation accuracy and numerical stability.

We propose a novel architecture for $k$-shot classification on the Omniglot dataset. Building on prototypical networks, we extend their architecture to what we call Gaussian prototypical networks. Prototypical networks learn a map between images and embedding vectors, and use their clustering for classification. In our model, a part of the encoder output is interpreted as a confidence region estimate about the embedding point, and expressed as a Gaussian covariance matrix. Our network then constructs a direction and class dependent distance metric on the embedding space, using uncertainties of individual data points as weights. We show that Gaussian prototypical networks are a preferred architecture over vanilla prototypical networks with an equivalent number of parameters. We report state-of-the-art performance in 1-shot and 5-shot classification both in 5-way and 20-way regime (for 5-shot 5-way, we are comparable to previous state-of-the-art) on the Omniglot dataset. We explore artificially down-sampling a fraction of images in the training set, which improves our performance even further. We therefore hypothesize that Gaussian prototypical networks might perform better in less homogeneous, noisier datasets, which are commonplace in real world applications.

Mean field variational Bayes (MFVB) is a popular posterior approximation method due to its fast runtime on large-scale data sets. However, a well known failing of MFVB is that it underestimates the uncertainty of model variables (sometimes severely) and provides no information about model variable covariance. We generalize linear response methods from statistical physics to deliver accurate uncertainty estimates for model variables---both for individual variables and coherently across variables. We call our method linear response variational Bayes (LRVB). When the MFVB posterior approximation is in the exponential family, LRVB has a simple, analytic form, even for non-conjugate models. Indeed, we make no assumptions about the form of the true posterior. We demonstrate the accuracy and scalability of our method on a range of models for both simulated and real data.